A 36% drop in travel bookings to Spain was observed in France compared to February 2022. This data contrasts with the growth recorded in the United Kingdom (+12%) and Italy (+61%). . This negative development could be due to economic and political uncertainty, as well as rising energy prices.
“Delicate start to the year” for the French economy
According to data from CaixaBank Research, the French economy achieved a “modest increase” of 0.1% in the last quarter of 2022.
“Despite the positive nature of this result, France has shown less dynamic behavior than expected over the past year, although it is, a priori, one of the major economies least exposed to flows of Russian natural gas” .
High inflation and rising prices in France
Bad news for household purchasing power. Consumer prices increased by 6% over one year in January 2023, according to INSEE. In January 2023, energy prices increased by 16.3%, year-on-year, while food prices increased by 13.3%. In general, consumer price inflation averaged 5.2% annually over the whole of 2022. The annual average takes inflation levels into account. 12 months of a calendar year.
“The persistence of inflation will continue to erode the purchasing power of families and will condition their spending decisions, which could translate into a further decline in private consumption in the first quarter of 2023”
The worst trade deficit
Last year we ended up with abysmal losses in foreign trade. This is one of the key markers of the country’s competitiveness. In 2022, the deficit in the trade balance for goods broke a historic record, exceeding 160 billion euros for the first time, to precisely 164 billion, Customs said on Tuesday. The Germans have seen their trade balance drop sharply. However, it remains positive at 76 billion euros. The difference between the two countries is gigantic. We can worry about French exports.
The French household confidence index is down
The confidence index is clearly below its long-term average (100). The opinion of French households on the economic situation is particularly negative.
In January, the index was 83 points (figure just revised by INSEE), up 1 point over one month.
What you need to know about this indicator: according to the definition of INSEE, “the synthetic indicator of household confidence summarizes their opinion on the economic situation: the higher its value, the more the judgment of households on the economic situation is favourable”. This indicator summarizes the balance of responses (positive and negative) for this survey. The household confidence index is a good barometer of the short-term outlook for their behavior, particularly in terms of consumption and savings.
For the moment, the desire to take a vacation does not weaken
In all likelihood, the year 2023 – despite the onset of a crisis and seriously eroded purchasing power – should therefore not experience a considerable drop in tourist demand. Whether it is the “domestic” clientele (theThe French represent 80% of French tourist receipts) or foreign customers. Indeed, according to YouGov, for example, 47% of Britons plan to go abroad and France, Italy and Spain still appear in their Top 3 destinations.
Like every year, a large majority of French holidaymakers will stay in France
We already published an article on the subject in February
If tour operators and agencies remain confident for the summer of 2023, it must be recognized that the statistics are not favorable today. Customers will surely leave but they will surely spend less than usual.
